Friday, January 23, 2009

Can you Predict the Forex Market?

By Karielle Samstad

Since I started trading, I have met a number of experts who teach courses and give seminars somehow giving the hint of having certain power or gift to predict the forex market. I have used most of their techniques in order to predict how the market will behave and make a profit from my decisions.

Let me tell you, I had many disappointments.

Market trends, charts, Fibonacci methods, Elliott Wave methods, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, you name it, none of them gave me an accurate and precise prediction of how the forex market was going to behave. Most of the time I was "too early" or "too late" in my moves.

Those experiences taught me a priceless lesson: there is no way to predict the market, but there are many ways to trade the market.

And to make money you have to trade the market correctly, not to predict the market correctly.

There are several elements that must be used when trading, but the most important one is to be calm and in control of the emotions. Forget anxiety. Forget fear. Forget greed. None of those things will help you make money. The more in control of those emotions and feelings you are, the more money you make. And that is a fact.

Once your heart and your mind are in place, the next thing to control is your cash flow. It is crucial to have a good money management strategy in place before doing any trading. This way you decide exactly how far you want to go, in amount of money and in amount of risk.

And that is the next thing you have to control: your risk. Choose your battles and know exactly what you are getting into. Dealing with the consequences of your decisions, either big profits or big losses, is your responsibility. Being in control of your risks gives you confidence and great possibilities of making money.

In other words, you can have the best tools on Earth to trade currencies, but if you do not have a good money management and risk strategy and control of your emotions and feelings, you are most likely to lose money.

The foreign exchange market is unpredictable, but trading it is a science and an art at the same time.

Play the market to win, controlling first your emotions and then your strategy. And then? Just go with the flow.

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